Bernard’s San Ramon Valley Blog

Why You Shouldn’t Believe Everything You Read In The Newspapers

The press continue to spread doom and gloom regarding the housing market, and there is little doubt that in many parts of the country, even many parts of the Bay Area, there is much cause for concern. The problem is that these reports always focus on large areas. It is not very relevant to tell a home owner in San Ramon or Danville how much home prices have eroded in Northern California. Your home is not located in Northern California. It is in a San Ramon or Danville. Even which part of the city can sometimes make a difference.

Real Estate Is Local

This is a phrase that is often quoted by real estate professionals and for very good reason. Take a look at the chart at the foot of the page. This has been generated from accurate data and it clearly shows how sale prices of a typical 4 bedroom 1800 to 2500 square foot home have been affected over the past year. By taking just the typical family home into account we get a much more realistic picture than when we consider overall averages. To make it even more meaningful, rather than just look at the whole of the East Bay, or even the San Ramon Valley, I have broken it down by location. This is the true picture and it could certainly affect your decision to buy or sell sooner, rather than waiting until later.

You will see that I have not covered everywhere here. In Alamo and Pleasant Hill, for example, there is insufficient data to show meaningful results. Other areas have been excluded because they are not in my main service areas. It is immediately apparent that some of our local markets are very resilient compared to others. Certainly some locations have suffered more than others. Average prices have fallen by 16% in east San Ramon for example. Most of the volume here is in Windemere and many of the sales are distress sales - homes that have been foreclosed and then sold by the banks at bargain prices. Banks don’t want to own homes!

In complete contrast to this are areas like Danville, Pleasanton and the west of San Ramon, where, although prices have fallen, the decrease over the past 12 months is only 4-5%. And look at Lamorinda. I have grouped together the towns of Orinda, Moraga and Lafayette because the demographics are similar and in order to have sufficient numbers of sales to provide meaningful results. Over the 12 month period under consideration, Lamorinda values have actually risen slightly. Of course there are fewer distress sales here.

Does This Mean Its A Good Time To Buy Or Sell Now?

So what can we say about these figures? We still don’t have enough data to say that we have “passed the bottom”, although it seems likely that we have done so in some locations, most obviously Lamorinda.

Danville, Pleasanton and the west side of San Ramon also look to be in good shape, particularly taking the relatively small decline in prices there into consideration. Walnut Creek also looks like it may be stabilizing although it would be nice to have a little more data here.
But just consider the actual price reductions again. With such relatively small losses in Pleasanton, Danville and western San Ramon, any further losses are likely to be minimal, so if you want to buy in these areas, why would you wait?

If you are moving within the immediate area, and you are both buying and selling in the same town, with so much choice and low interest rates, now is a great time to do so. I would advise finding a buyer for your home first if possible, as then you know exactly how much you can budget for your next home. Even with no home to sell, if I had been sitting on the fence for the past few months, I would make my move now. Even if prices fall further, any saving in price will most likely be taken up with higher monthly payments as the Fed has indicated that rate cuts are now at an end. There is only one way for rates to go from here.  Also remember that while there is plenty of inventory, sellers are more motivated to accept a lower price for their home. When the supply of homes starts to reduce, you can certainly expect to pay more for your home.

Caffé Delle Stelle used to be one of our regular haunts some years ago, when Sylvia and I lived in Pleasant Hill. Since moving to San Ramon, however, our dining experiences rarely take us to Walnut Creek. It was therefore with a little trepidation that we dined there recently. So many of the restaurants we used to know well have either gone downhill fast or just gone out of business due to increased competition. This is not an easy business in which to make a living. I am therefore very pleased to be able to say that Caffé Delle Stelle is just the same as we remembered it. They even have the same manager (!)

I should perhaps point out, for the benefit of regular readers, that this is a far cry from most of the restaurants I have reviewed. This is not a competitor for the likes of Forbes Mill or Postino, both of which should clearly be categorized as fine dining establishments. Caffé Delle Stelle is somewhat further down the scale than that, but frugality appears to be seen as an approach that many are embracing at the moment, so a more affordable dining experience appears well justified to me. That is not to say that this is in any way “down-market”. In fact it has the feel of a casual neighborhood café, an authentic Italian Trattoria. I find its survival a little surprising being situated, as it is, in what has to be a high rent area in Walnut Creek’s “restaurant row”. But perhaps that is the secret to its success. All around are restaurants with much higher prices while Delle Stelle clearly offers good value.

The ambience, in fact, is very appealing. The space was a restaurant well before Delle Stelle took it over and it is apparent that the budget was spent on the kitchen rather than the dining area. Closely packed tables with plain white tablecloths surround a simple central servery and the whole area has a painted concrete floor. Décor comprises, Italian wine bottles, boxes of dried pasta, giant cans of tomatoes, six-packs of Italian beer and similar items, all arranged in tasteful stacks. It sound strange but it works. There are usually plenty of customers and the restaurant has a definite Buzz, although I believe it is rarely full.

As far as the food goes, it is pretty authentic. There is a wide choice of appetizers including smoked salmon and carpaccio, neither of which would be typical menu items in a mid-price restaurant. There are also quite a few salads.

On being seated, a plate of bread with a bowl of a kind of tapenade, is brought to your table, together with a jug of slightly sparkling water with ice and a slice of orange. This is a nice touch and as is so often the case, I think it s the small things that make the difference.
On this occasion, keeping our fore-mentioned frugality in mind, Sylvia and I headed straight to the entrees, although we did select a bottle of Chardonnay as both an aperitif and to accompany our meal. You have to draw the line somewhere!

I ordered the grilled sole, which was always one of my favorite dishes here in the past. The quality was as good as ever. A generous filet of sole, cooked under the broiler with melted butter, dotted with capers and with a generous squeeze of lemon juice. Wonderful! This was accompanied by mixed squash and soft polenta. A very good well-rounded dish in the Italian tradition.

Sylvia chose another Italian dish, Chicken Saltimbocca. This was also very tasty, and a generous portion. The chicken breasts were smothered with the Saltimbocca sauce and this was accompanied by baby well-roasted potatoes. Neither of us had a dessert, and I don’t recall that their desserts were particularly exciting from when we were regular patrons but we were both well-pleased with our meal.
I should warn wine drinkers that the wine list is both short and predominately Italian. Not a problem if you know your Italian wines but I don’t. The chardonnay we had was Californian though (Salmon Creek, which is the house wine) and it was fine.  Service was a little slow, but we were not in a hurry and we will certainly return.