Bernard’s San Ramon Valley Blog

2007 and 2008 have been stressful years for many homeowners, particularly those who bought their homes within the last couple of years. The vast majority of these are doing fine, even though they have seen the equity in their homes decreasing but the people who bought homes with little or no down payment and those who borrowed money on the basis of “stated income” just because they could not otherwise qualify are those that got into trouble.

Many of these people have been forced into “short sales” and others have been foreclosed on. The reaction of lenders, who many believe are largely responsible for this mess any way, was to suddenly decide that they didn’t really want to lend to anybody with less than 30% down so loans became hard to get.

The Good News

Now there are signs that things are getting better. From June 1st, Fanny Mae scrapped its “Declining Markets” policy which effectively meant that the largest available loans to most people was 90%. Now with 95% loans available again, first-time buyers can qualify for a loan, thus stimulating the market from the bottom.

The increase in conforming loan limits in March is also just starting to have an effect. $417,000 was the previous limit for lower cost conforming loans but now, with the limit at $729,750, buyers can get a first loan up to that figure at a low interest rate, topping it up with a second loan for the balance of financing needed, rather than take out a large, expensive, jumbo loan.

Higher limits for FHA loans are also starting to have an impact. With just 3% down a home buyer, even with less than stellar credit, can qualify to buy with a loan up to $729,750.

The Market Will Recover

All of this is helping to move the real estate market towards recovery. And it will recover. Fully. A new study from the Joint Center For Housing Studies of Harvard University finds the country poised to see an increase in housing demand over the next decade. The reason? Our population is growing.

From 2010 to 2020 the population will grow by an average of more than 1.4 million people per year. That is a lot of growth.

And note that this is a nationwide study. If you look at Danville or San Ramon for example, you will see that we almost always have a buoyant housing market.

Our Market Is Resilient

Even now, with all the talk of doom and gloom, there is less than a 6 month supply of homes for sale based on the latest figures. 3-6 months supply is generally considered a neutral market. Less than 3 months is a sellers’ market and over 6 months is a buyers’ market. You can find a buyers market in Brentwood or Pittsburg or Antioch or even Concord but you won’t find it here. That’s why our prices have stopped plummeting. Sure there are some low priced homes to be found but they are mostly bank owned foreclosures, many of which are in pretty bad shape. An increasing number of the rest are selling above list price and with multiple offers.
All of the above has to be good news for the real estate market and home owners as a whole.

Soon, things will get back to normal with moderate 2-4% annual increases in value backed by sensible lending policies.

Why You Shouldn’t Believe Everything You Read In The Newspapers

The press continue to spread doom and gloom regarding the housing market, and there is little doubt that in many parts of the country, even many parts of the Bay Area, there is much cause for concern. The problem is that these reports always focus on large areas. It is not very relevant to tell a home owner in San Ramon or Danville how much home prices have eroded in Northern California. Your home is not located in Northern California. It is in a San Ramon or Danville. Even which part of the city can sometimes make a difference.

Real Estate Is Local

This is a phrase that is often quoted by real estate professionals and for very good reason. Take a look at the chart at the foot of the page. This has been generated from accurate data and it clearly shows how sale prices of a typical 4 bedroom 1800 to 2500 square foot home have been affected over the past year. By taking just the typical family home into account we get a much more realistic picture than when we consider overall averages. To make it even more meaningful, rather than just look at the whole of the East Bay, or even the San Ramon Valley, I have broken it down by location. This is the true picture and it could certainly affect your decision to buy or sell sooner, rather than waiting until later.

You will see that I have not covered everywhere here. In Alamo and Pleasant Hill, for example, there is insufficient data to show meaningful results. Other areas have been excluded because they are not in my main service areas. It is immediately apparent that some of our local markets are very resilient compared to others. Certainly some locations have suffered more than others. Average prices have fallen by 16% in east San Ramon for example. Most of the volume here is in Windemere and many of the sales are distress sales - homes that have been foreclosed and then sold by the banks at bargain prices. Banks don’t want to own homes!

In complete contrast to this are areas like Danville, Pleasanton and the west of San Ramon, where, although prices have fallen, the decrease over the past 12 months is only 4-5%. And look at Lamorinda. I have grouped together the towns of Orinda, Moraga and Lafayette because the demographics are similar and in order to have sufficient numbers of sales to provide meaningful results. Over the 12 month period under consideration, Lamorinda values have actually risen slightly. Of course there are fewer distress sales here.

Does This Mean Its A Good Time To Buy Or Sell Now?

So what can we say about these figures? We still don’t have enough data to say that we have “passed the bottom”, although it seems likely that we have done so in some locations, most obviously Lamorinda.

Danville, Pleasanton and the west side of San Ramon also look to be in good shape, particularly taking the relatively small decline in prices there into consideration. Walnut Creek also looks like it may be stabilizing although it would be nice to have a little more data here.
But just consider the actual price reductions again. With such relatively small losses in Pleasanton, Danville and western San Ramon, any further losses are likely to be minimal, so if you want to buy in these areas, why would you wait?

If you are moving within the immediate area, and you are both buying and selling in the same town, with so much choice and low interest rates, now is a great time to do so. I would advise finding a buyer for your home first if possible, as then you know exactly how much you can budget for your next home. Even with no home to sell, if I had been sitting on the fence for the past few months, I would make my move now. Even if prices fall further, any saving in price will most likely be taken up with higher monthly payments as the Fed has indicated that rate cuts are now at an end. There is only one way for rates to go from here.  Also remember that while there is plenty of inventory, sellers are more motivated to accept a lower price for their home. When the supply of homes starts to reduce, you can certainly expect to pay more for your home.

Why You Shouldn’t Believe Everything You Read In The Newspapers

The press continue to spread doom and gloom regarding the housing market, and there is little doubt that in many parts of the country, even many parts of the Bay Area, there is much cause for concern. The problem is that these reports always focus on large areas. It is not very relevant to tell a home owner in San Ramon or Danville how much home prices have eroded in Northern California. Your home is not located in Northern California. It is in a specific city. Sometimes even which part of the city makes a difference.

Real Estate Is Local
This is a phrase that is often quoted by real estate professionals and for very good reason. Take a look at the chart at the foot of the page. This has been generated from accurate data that clearly shows how sale prices of a typical 4 bedroom 1800 to 2500 square foot home have been affected over the past year. By taking just the typical family home into account we get a much more realistic picture than when we consider overall averages. To make it even more meaningful, rather than just look at the whole of the East Bay, or even the San Ramon Valley, I have broken it down by city. The figures make interesting reading. They may even affect your decision to buy or sell now, rather than waiting until later.It is immediately apparent that many of our local markets are very resilient compared to many others.
Certainly parts of our area have suffered more than others. Average prices have fallen by 16% in east San Ramon for example. Most of the volume here is in Windemere and many of the sales are distress sales - homes that have been foreclosed and then sold by the banks at bargain prices. Banks don’t want to own homes!In complete contrast to this are areas like Danville, Pleasanton and the rest of San Ramon, where, although prices have fallen, the decrease over the past 12 months is only 4-5%.
And look at Lamorinda. I have grouped together the towns of Orinda, Moraga and Lafayette because the demographics are similar and in order to have sufficient numbers of sales to provide meaningful results. Over the 12 month period under consideration, Lamorinda values have actually risen. Of course there are far fewer distress sales in this area.
So what can we predict from these figures? We still don’t have enough data to say that we have “passed the bottom”, although it seems likely that we have done so in some locations, most obviously Lamorinda.Danville, Pleasanton and the west side of San Ramon also look to be in good shape, particularly taking the relatively small decline in prices there into consideration. Walnut Creek also looks like it may be stabilizing although it would be nice to have a little more data here.Is It A Good Time To Buy Or Sell Now?
If you are moving within the immediate area, and you are both buying and selling, now is a great time to do so. I would advise finding a buyer for your home first if possible, as then you know exactly how much you can budget for your next home, but there is plenty of choice out there and interest rates are low. If you don’t have a home to sell, it is also a great time to buy. The likelihood of home prices falling further is slim, and even if they do, any gains you make will most likely be taken up with higher interest rates. The Fed has indicated that rate cuts are at an end and there is only one way for rates to go from here.  Also remember that while there is plenty of inventory, sellers are more motivated to accept a lower price for their home. When the supply starts to reduce, you can expect to pay more for your home.

Why Moving Up In A Down Market Makes Sense

This is traditionally the start of the busiest period in the year in real estate sales activity, driven to a large extent by the need for families with children to get them enrolled in new schools  in time for the new school year. For those who are buying or selling due to a job change, or any other case of necessity, the question does not arise but for discretionary buyers or sellers, it is an important consideration. My response may give you some food for thought.The answer to the above question depends on your personal  circumstances. If you are buying up, this is probably the best time imaginable to move house. Here’s why:

Let’s suppose you have a home that was worth $800,000 2 years ago. A move up then to a $1.2m home would have cost you an additional $400,000.

If we assume that home prices have fallen 20% in the last 2 years, your $800,000 home is now only worth $640,000. Fortunately for you, that $1.2m home has also dropped in value - to $960,000. So moving up to that same home would cost you only $320,000, saving you $80,000 in extra mortgage costs. Yes it’s true that you have to sell your home for 20% less than you could possibly have sold it for 2 years ago but so what? Those times are gone. You can still move up to the same home you could have then, only now it will cost you less money. Moving up in a down market is a great thing to do.

If you are currently renting, or perhaps a first-time buyer, it could also make a lot of sense to buy now, rather than wait until later.

There is no doubt that there are many potential buyers who are currently sitting on the fence and “waiting for the market to bottom out” in the belief that this is what serves their best interests, but in reality, this is probably not such a great idea.

First of all, how do you know when the market has bottomed out? The answer is, only after we have passed it and prices are on the rise. Most of the economists feel that we either at, or very near to, the bottom any way.

Also bear in mind that interest rates are now amazingly low. The only way they are going from here is up. And let’s face it, the most important number you should be looking at is your monthly mortgage payment. That is a lot more relevant than the price you pay for your home.
If you buy in today’s market, you have the benefit that there are a large number of homes from which to choose, including some bargain priced bank-owned ones. And sellers, in general are very motivated. If you buy after the bottom, when house prices are on the rise, you face increased competition and the possibility of multiple offers.

There is a further tangible benefit you may want to consider regardless of your circumstances. Suppose you wait until prices are rising again, maybe another 4-6 months. Moving house is not generally just an investment like buying stocks and shares. By buying now, you actually get to live in your new home faster and enjoy it. Life is not just about saving every dollar you can. Time is the one commodity you can never have more of!