Bernard’s Danville Real Estate Blog

At the beginning of June 2010 there were 215 detached single family homes for sale in Danville CA (the same as at this time last month) and 48 condos and townhomes etc. This is around 2.75 months supply of homes, again, similar to last month. The Danville CA real estate market appears to be extremely stable at the moment and it strongly favors home sellers.

The median price continues to rise and this is indicative of the fact that more higher priced homes are selling than has recently been the case. It may also be a sign of a slight increase in values although there is, as yet, insufficient data to draw that conclusion.
All of the above is encouraging for Danville CA Home sellers. This is an active real estate market. Nevertheless, there are still homes for sale that have been there for many weeks and the message is clear. If you want to get your home sold, it is essential to present it in the best possible light and then to make sure that it is priced appropriately. Overpriced homes do not sell in most markets.

Local restaurateur Rodney Worth made his name in Danville with his popular Peasant And The Pear restaurant but last year he expanded his horizons to Alamo with the opening of The Peasant’s Courtyard in a space previously occupied by the Courtyard Café. Sylvia and I decided it was time to check it out.             I remembered the Courtyard Café as a pleasant breakfast and lunch venue with a small interior but a large patio which was certainly appealing in the summer months. I found it hard to imagine how such a small space could become a profitable restaurant though. Of course I had reckoned without Rodney’s thoughtful take on the situation.Sylvia and I visited on a Friday evening late in April and we immediately headed for a table in the sheltered courtyard. From the moment we sat down, we felt totally relaxed and having ordered a bottle of Chardonnay, began to peruse the menus.

We immediately realized one of the reasons why this restaurant should be destined for success. This really is a menu with something for everybody. There are sandwiches, burgers, omelettes, salads and more, plus a selection of Specials, which always included Fish and Chips on a Friday.

We decided to share a portion of Calamari to start and this was an excellent choice. A generous portion, lightly battered, and deliciously fresh. Sylvia went for the Fish and Chips Special for her main course, while I had another special, a rack of barbequed ribs, also served with fries.

By this time it was getting decidedly chilly outside and after a word with our waiter, we retreated indoors to finish eating our entrees there. The waiter was totally unfazed by our request and we were seated at a cozy table in the corner in no time.

My ribs were really meaty (an enormous portion) and the barbeque sauce was delicious and plenty of it. Sylvia’s fish and chips were good but not quite what she expected. The better was not quite so light as the traditional English style fish and chips (as served at the Crown Pub in Danville).

We passed on desserts and relaxed while we finished our wine and listened to the singer-guitarist. They have live music on a Friday and Saturday evening, yet another attraction.

The inside really is tiny with only ten or so tables, but what a great ambiance. It has the feel of a European bistro or wine bar. There is also a very attractive bar.

Both Sylvia and I agreed that this was one of the most relaxing evenings we had spent in a restaurant in a long time. The staff are absolutely top-notch and there really is something for everybody on the menu. Prices are very reasonable and portions are generous, plus they open for breakfast, lunch and dinner. It really does seem that Rodney Worth knows what he is doing here and we look forward to visiting his next restaurant that is about to open in Blackhawk Plaza.

  From its peak in 2005/2006, the real estate market fell at an alarming rate for 3 years. Now, most people are of the opinion that the market bottomed out at some point in 2009.             By examining and analyzing recent sales in different parts of the San Ramon Valley, I hope to be able to show what is happening right now. As for the future, this should help you to draw your own conclusions.

Don’t Believe What You Read In The Papers

The national press continues to report doom and gloom in housing markets across the U.S. and they may be right when the country is considered as a whole but this is somewhat meaningless. Real estate is local. Even the East Bay comprises a number of micro-economies such that a blanket view can’t possibly tell the whole story.

Developing A True Picture

If we take an average home, say a 4 bedroom 1800-220 sq.ft detached single family residence with a 2-car garage, and look at the changing price per square foot over the last two years, we should be able to see which way prices are trending.

If we then do the same thing for different areas within the San Ramon Valley, we should be able to see which ones, if any, are experiencing higher rates of increases in prices. So this is what we can see in the first chart below. The area covered is the San Ramon Valley from Concord to San Ramon.

This paints what looks like a fairly clear picture. A steady decline from 2007 through the first half of 2009 when prices appear to have bottomed out and from what we can see, prices are presently stable.

So now lets take a look at two very disparate markets, Concord and San Ramon, specifically San Ramon’s zip code 94582 (notably Gale Ranch and Windemere) which has seen an amazing amount of activity recently. The results are in the two charts that follow.

Real Estate Is Local

Now we can really see what the phrase “Real Estate Is Local” means. To all appearances, prices in Concord may still be headed downwards despite an apparent recovery towards the end of 2009. San Ramon, on the other hand, is now experiencing rapid growth in the 94582 zip code.

Finally, let’s take a look at San Ramon 94583. This should demonstrate if real estate price trends can vary within a city, let alone a county.

In 2007, both San Ramon zip codes were valued at similar levels. Now, the 94582 zip code is clearly outstripping 94583. Will this last? I suspect it may as the schools appear to be the big attraction here.

In the 94583 zip code, prices appear to have stabilized faster than in the San Ramon Valley as a whole though, and this should be seen as a good indication that the worst is now over.

Blackhawk Plaza has no shortage of restaurants and Laurus is the latest addition to the Blackhawk dining scene. The competition includes the excellent Blackhawk Grille. It will have to offer a pretty good dining experience if it is to be successful. Will it survive? Read on to get my take on it.
 Laurus is the brain-child of restaurateurs Matthew Silverman and Thomas Bensel and is their third venture in Blackhawk, joining their wine bar, Stomp, and their Mexican restaurant, Coa, all recently opened.
 All three locations are in keeping with Blackhawk Plaza but Laurus is undoubtedly the flag-ship. It opened for business in early December and Sylvia and I dined there for the first time with Michelle (her birthday dinner) for the first time shortly afterwards.
 This is a very stylish restaurant with somewhat minimalist décor and designer colors on the walls. The floor is polished concrete. There is an open display kitchen, an elegant, curved bar with plenty of seating and also an outdoor terrace seating surrounded by the Blackhawk water features with Koi carp and ducks etc.
 The service is impeccable and the food here is excellent. The three of us shared a generous portion of fried Calamari as an appetizer and none of us could fault it. This was  lightly breaded, served with haricots verts and accompanied by a light curry mayonnaise.
 For an entree, I had sea scallops that were served (very artistically I should add) on a bed of butternut squash risotto. The scallops were succulent and the risotto cooked to perfection, although the portion size (just three scallops) seemed a little on the meager side. Even so, I do appreciate the concept of quality rather than quantity and given the choice, quality wins every time.
 Sylvia had the Bistro Steak (a flat-iron steak served with sweet potato fries, an interesting twist on the usual steak frites) and pronounced it to be excellent, with a really good flavor and tender to the bite. Michelle’s choice was the Seafood Bouillabaise and it looked to be crammed full of quite a variety of fish and shellfish. She said it was yummy!
 Neither Sylvia nor Michelle appeared to appreciate my suggestions with regard to a pudding so we settled for finishing off our second bottle of Frogs Leap chardonnay by way of a final course. The wine list is quite extensive incidentally, and the wine was served at perfect temperature, but it would be nice to see some lower-priced wines on offer.
 Overall, we came away with a high opinion of Laurus. I won’t say we will be frequent visitors as it is a little above our normal dining budget but it would be great for a special occasion and should certainly be popular with many affluent locals. 

Regular readers will know that this is not the first time I have reviewed Faz but times change and my policy is to occasionally revisit restaurants I have previously reviewed, hopefully to confirm that they are maintaining their standards.

Quite apart from all this, I freely admit that Faz has always been one of my favorite restaurants. From my first visit, back in the 1980s when I was here on vacation, I was completely hooked. It wasn’t so much the food that impressed me then, although it was good, but the unique ambience of the place. And amazingly, it is not the tree growing up through the roof of the restaurant that is the most striking feature, but the dining patio - a large, sheltered wood deck at the rear of the restaurant with tall redwood trees growing through it and reaching towards the sky. As owner Faz Poursohi has been quoted as saying, “Anybody who fails to make a success of a restaurant with such surroundings does not deserve to be in the restaurant business”.And so it was that Sylvia and I found ourselves once more, seated outside on the deck on a warm Friday evening towards the end of March.Diners at Faz are presented with a basket of home-made foccacia bread and a middle eastern flat bread together with a small plate of olive oil with parmesan cheese and herbs mixed in. This tastes so good that appetizers seem quite unnecessary, so instead, we ordered a bottle of Frei Brothers Chardonnay to enjoy while we snacked on the breads and waited for our entrees. Frei Brothers really do produce a good Chardonnay.One thing that is perhaps worth mentioning here (and a point that while being a big plus to us, may be frustrating to some) is that service is relaxed at Faz. We like to take our time over a meal and the wait-staff are certainly pleasant and attentive, but don’t come here if you want to be out in an hour. It just isn’t that kind of a restaurant.The menu at Faz is another secret to it’s success. You can dine here very reasonably, on a simple and tasty pizza or pasta, and yet they also offer a good selection of more expensive dishes and there are always daily specials.On this occasion, Sylvia dined from the specials menu, while I ordered from the regular menu, although we both had lamb.Sylvia chose the lamb sirloin (having first ascertained from our waiter that it was a New Zealand Lamb - Sylvia finds American lamb is a little too “gamey” for her taste). This was a generous sized sirloin served with roasted potatoes and a selection of fresh vegetables and the taste and texture was excellent.For my entrée, I had rack of lamb with mint sauce on the side, a dish that has featured on their menu as long as I can remember. This is a dish that I generally avoid in restaurants as although it is generally tasty enough, and the presentation is frequently quite impressive, so often, there is little actual meat there. I do feel somewhat cheated if most of my main course turns out to be a few bones.Not so at Faz. This was not only one of the most generous portions of rack of lamb I have ever been served (really large enough to share), but the flavor was outstanding. This was served with similar accompaniments to Sylvia’s dish.Neither of us were inclined to have a dessert but we were completely satisfied by our meal and happy to know that Faz is maintaining its reputation for good food and good service at reasonable prices. You can find there menus and more on their web site at www.fazrestaurants.com.  

Latest Full Months Statistics for Danville Homes
(including Blackhawk and Diablo)

Previous months figures shown in parentheses	Detached Single Family Homes	Condomiums, Townhomes, others
New Listings	80(92)	22(19)
New Sales Agreed	38(32)	9(10)
Closed Sales	30(14)	8(7)
Median Price - Closed Sales	$791,250 ($961,250)	$504,337 ($515,000)
Average Days on Market - Closed Sales	117(90)	91(54)

At the beginning of April, 2009, there were 286 detached single family homes for sale in Danville (up from 271 in March, 2009) and 64 condos and townhomes etc. against 65 a month ago. So there is around 9 months supply of single family homes in Danville and 6 months supply of condos etc. The supply of condos is still being taken up faster than single family homes, but still, 9 months supply is a lot less than in many parts of Contra Costa County.
     What is of particular note is that the median price of closed sales has fallen significantly for the third straight month. Danville home prices are not as resilient as many thought. The increasing time on the market suggests that sellers may have been trying to sell their homes for unrealistic prices but they eventually given up waiting for higher offers and accepted the reality of the situation.
     So what happens now in Danville? Certainly there are plenty of buyers about but they will still be cautious when they see these figures. Home sellers will need to price their properties very aggressively if they really want to achieve a sale.
     I still think it is a good time to buy in Danville. Interest rates are low and there is a lot of choice. If I was thinking about buying here now, I would make a very careful assessment of real value and base any offers on that, rather than just on the asking price. And there are still bank owned foreclosures that offer particularly good opportunities in many cases.

2007 and 2008 have been stressful years for many homeowners, particularly those who bought their homes within the last couple of years. The vast majority of these are doing fine, even though they have seen the equity in their homes decreasing but the people who bought homes with little or no down payment and those who borrowed money on the basis of “stated income” just because they could not otherwise qualify are those that got into trouble.

Many of these people have been forced into “short sales” and others have been foreclosed on. The reaction of lenders, who many believe are largely responsible for this mess any way, was to suddenly decide that they didn’t really want to lend to anybody with less than 30% down so loans became hard to get.

The Good News

Now there are signs that things are getting better. From June 1st, Fanny Mae scrapped its “Declining Markets” policy which effectively meant that the largest available loans to most people was 90%. Now with 95% loans available again, first-time buyers can qualify for a loan, thus stimulating the market from the bottom.

The increase in conforming loan limits in March is also just starting to have an effect. $417,000 was the previous limit for lower cost conforming loans but now, with the limit at $729,750, buyers can get a first loan up to that figure at a low interest rate, topping it up with a second loan for the balance of financing needed, rather than take out a large, expensive, jumbo loan.

Higher limits for FHA loans are also starting to have an impact. With just 3% down a home buyer, even with less than stellar credit, can qualify to buy with a loan up to $729,750.

The Market Will Recover

All of this is helping to move the real estate market towards recovery. And it will recover. Fully. A new study from the Joint Center For Housing Studies of Harvard University finds the country poised to see an increase in housing demand over the next decade. The reason? Our population is growing.

From 2010 to 2020 the population will grow by an average of more than 1.4 million people per year. That is a lot of growth.

And note that this is a nationwide study. If you look at Danville or San Ramon for example, you will see that we almost always have a buoyant housing market.

Our Market Is Resilient

Even now, with all the talk of doom and gloom, there is less than a 6 month supply of homes for sale based on the latest figures. 3-6 months supply is generally considered a neutral market. Less than 3 months is a sellers’ market and over 6 months is a buyers’ market. You can find a buyers market in Brentwood or Pittsburg or Antioch or even Concord but you won’t find it here. That’s why our prices have stopped plummeting. Sure there are some low priced homes to be found but they are mostly bank owned foreclosures, many of which are in pretty bad shape. An increasing number of the rest are selling above list price and with multiple offers.
All of the above has to be good news for the real estate market and home owners as a whole.

Soon, things will get back to normal with moderate 2-4% annual increases in value backed by sensible lending policies.