Bernard’s Danville Real Estate Blog

  From its peak in 2005/2006, the real estate market fell at an alarming rate for 3 years. Now, most people are of the opinion that the market bottomed out at some point in 2009.             By examining and analyzing recent sales in different parts of the San Ramon Valley, I hope to be able to show what is happening right now. As for the future, this should help you to draw your own conclusions.

Don’t Believe What You Read In The Papers

The national press continues to report doom and gloom in housing markets across the U.S. and they may be right when the country is considered as a whole but this is somewhat meaningless. Real estate is local. Even the East Bay comprises a number of micro-economies such that a blanket view can’t possibly tell the whole story.

Developing A True Picture

If we take an average home, say a 4 bedroom 1800-220 sq.ft detached single family residence with a 2-car garage, and look at the changing price per square foot over the last two years, we should be able to see which way prices are trending.

If we then do the same thing for different areas within the San Ramon Valley, we should be able to see which ones, if any, are experiencing higher rates of increases in prices. So this is what we can see in the first chart below. The area covered is the San Ramon Valley from Concord to San Ramon.

This paints what looks like a fairly clear picture. A steady decline from 2007 through the first half of 2009 when prices appear to have bottomed out and from what we can see, prices are presently stable.

So now lets take a look at two very disparate markets, Concord and San Ramon, specifically San Ramon’s zip code 94582 (notably Gale Ranch and Windemere) which has seen an amazing amount of activity recently. The results are in the two charts that follow.

Real Estate Is Local

Now we can really see what the phrase “Real Estate Is Local” means. To all appearances, prices in Concord may still be headed downwards despite an apparent recovery towards the end of 2009. San Ramon, on the other hand, is now experiencing rapid growth in the 94582 zip code.

Finally, let’s take a look at San Ramon 94583. This should demonstrate if real estate price trends can vary within a city, let alone a county.

In 2007, both San Ramon zip codes were valued at similar levels. Now, the 94582 zip code is clearly outstripping 94583. Will this last? I suspect it may as the schools appear to be the big attraction here.

In the 94583 zip code, prices appear to have stabilized faster than in the San Ramon Valley as a whole though, and this should be seen as a good indication that the worst is now over.

I just updated information on my main web site at www.BernardGibbons.com that should be of interest to homeowners facing foreclosure and also to buyers wanting to know more about opportunities and pitfalls relating to buying foreclosures, short sales or bank-owned REO properties in the San Ramon Valley and Lamorinda.